Obama edges Clinton in poll

[Jack]

Barack Obama has come from behind to turn the Democratic presidential race in New Hampshire into a toss-up, according to a new Monitor opinion poll. The results - which show Obama with a one-point edge over Hillary Clinton - mirror other polls released this week, indicating that Clinton's once-imposing lead has evaporated in the run-up to New Hampshire's Jan. 8 primary.
The poll suggests that the Democratic race could hinge on the turnout of undeclared voters, who aren't registered with either political party. Much of Obama's backing comes from undeclared voters, while registered Democrats make up the bulk of Clinton's support. In New Hampshire, undeclared voters can vote in either party primary, giving them sway in both contests.
"The more undeclared voters that decide to vote in the Democratic primary, the better chance Obama wins," said Del Ali, president of Research 2000, the Maryland-based nonpartisan polling firm that conducted the poll for the Monitor on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. "What Hillary Clinton has to hope is that more of the established Democrats come out to vote."
If the Democratic race is in flux, the Republican race in New Hampshire has remained constant in recent months, with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney continuing to hold a double-digit lead over his nearest competitors.
According to the poll, Romney would win 31 percent of the vote if the Republican primary were held today. Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain, meanwhile, would earn 18 percent and 17 percent respectively. Although Mike Huckabee is leading some Iowa polls, his campaign hasn't surged in New Hampshire: 9 percent of voters back the former Arkansas governor.
The figures were similar in July, when a Monitor poll showed that 27 percent of those surveyed backed Romney, 20 percent picked Giuliani and 16 percent chose McCain. Informal interviews with voters yesterday in Concord turned up several leaning toward Obama. Those voters described Obama in much the same way the Illinois senator describes himself: as an agent of change, a new face in Washington.
Charles Shipman, who is registered as undeclared, said that he would support Clinton should she win the Democratic nomination. But Obama "offers sort of a fresh start, more of a clean slate, less baggage," said Shipman of Manchester.
Of the likely Democratic primary voters surveyed for the Monitor poll, 37 percent aren't registered with a political party. When it came to those undeclared voters, Obama trounced his opponents: 40 percent of undeclared voters likely to vote in the Democratic primary backed Obama, compared with 23 percent for Clinton and 13 percent for former North Carolina senator John Edwards.
Clinton, in contrast, won the support of more registered Democrats: 36 percent said they'd vote for Clinton, compared with 27 percent for Obama and 21 percent for Edwards.
For Rhonda Ashley of Contoocook, Obama will be the first Democrat she's supported in a recent presidential election. In 2000, she backed McCain in the state's primary; in 2004, she voted Republican. Obama "has an enthusiasm that I don't see in any of the other candidates," Ashley said. As for Clinton, "I feel like Hillary will go wherever the polls tell her to go."
Apart from undeclared voters, Obama now draws considerable support from women. Of the female, likely Democratic voters surveyed, 34 percent say they'd choose Obama, compared with 32 percent for Clinton. Female voters have widely been considered a key demographic for Clinton, the former first lady and U.S. senator from New York.
"That's where the biggest gains have been made for Obama," Ali said. "That gender gap - right now, he's removed it."
But if some voters have settled on a candidate, others voiced indecision.
Rich Eichhorn of Hopkinton has yet to decide which primary to vote in. "I can go either way; it's less about left or right," said Eichhorn, who voted for McCain in 2000. "We need somebody who can lead people."
And Marilyn Wyzga, a registered Democrat from Hillsboro, is considering voting for Edwards or New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. She likes Edwards's "honest and direct approach," but she is also drawn to Richardson's "experience."
Obama, Clinton and Edwards were the only Democratic candidates to win double-digit support in the poll - 32 percent of likely Democratic primary voters surveyed backed Obama, 31 percent chose Clinton, and 18 percent went with Edwards. Richardson followed with 8 percent support. Dennis Kucinich, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd all placed in the low single digits.
The results of the Monitor poll were similar to those of a University of New Hampshire poll released earlier this week. That survey showed Clinton leading Obama by just one percentage point, well within the margin of error.
In the Monitor's July poll, 33 percent of likely Democratic voters surveyed chose Clinton, while 25 percent picked Obama. Edwards won 15 percent of the vote in that poll, while Richardson took 7 percent.
On the Republican side, several voters said that they're continuing to assess the candidates.
Gary Nylen of Bow backed McCain in 2000. Now, he said, "I don't know whether I'll vote for him, Giuliani, Romney or Huckabee." Nylen, who considers immigration and national security the most important issues, cited aspects of each candidate that he found appealing, including Giuliani's leadership after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. But Nylen is frustrated by political promises that he said were unlikely to come to fruition. "Don't give us rhetoric," Nylen said. "Give us facts.
"I can't make a decision right now, because I don't feel comfortable," he said.
On the Republican side, 13 percent of voters surveyed said they remained undecided about whom to vote for, compared with 5 percent among the likely Democratic voters.
Bill Anderson, who is registered as undeclared, would happily take characteristics of several Republican candidates and roll them into one politician: Huckabee's social conservatism, McCain's emphasis on national security, Romney's managerial abilities.
But without that option, "I'll take any one of them over the inexperienced guy and the person I don't trust," said Anderson, of Weare, referring to Obama and Clinton. Giuliani's stance on abortion - the former mayor has supported abortion rights - led Anderson to rule him out.
It's unclear how many undeclared voters plan to participate in the Republican primary. Of the likely Republican voters surveyed, 19 percent are undeclared. In 2000, support from undeclared voters helped McCain widen his lead over George W. Bush in the New Hampshire primary, according to exit polls.
Research 2000 used randomly generated telephone numbers to interview 600 likely voters. Those interviewed - 186 Democrats (31 percent), 180 Republicans (30 percent) and 234 voters who identified themselves as independents (39 percent) - reflect voter registration numbers. The interviews included 288 men and 312 women. The poll has a four percentage point margin of error, although that figure is higher for subgroups within the poll.
Looking ahead to the general election, the three highest-polling Democrats beat each of the highest-polling Republicans.
In those head-to-head match-ups, Obama fared best among the Democrats, beating Romney, Giuliani and McCain by the largest margins. Although Edwards also wins those match-ups, several of those contests are a statistical dead heat. Clinton lies between Obama and Edwards, leading each of the three Republicans by at least six percentage points.
Of the Republicans, Romney looks to face the toughest general election battles, according to the poll. Obama leads Romney by 12 points, with Clinton and Edwards besting Romney by eight points and five points respectively. For Giuliani and McCain, the margins are smaller.
"I think it's tough for a Republican in New Hampshire," Ali said. "It's the Democrats' state to lose."
------ End of article
By SARAH LIEBOWITZ
Monitor staff
This article is: 0 days old.

[Mayor Gregory]

... she'll be back onto his kindergarten teacher for old essays...

[djacques75]

Anyone's better than the Wicked Witch (except the non-Ron Paul Republicans, of course).

[SnarkyOracle!]

I suspect Hillary's campaign has been infiltrated. Rovian style.

[BJR]

Anyone's better than the Wicked Witch (except the non-Ron Paul Republicans, of course).

HUH??????

Oh!!!!!! Doy!!!!!

[Mayor Gregory]

... strange days indeed

[jen.n]

Oprah is probably beefing up her security

[Jack]

I suspect Hillary's campaign has been infiltrated. Rovian style.

the Clintons invented the Rove style of politics

[SnarkyOracle!]

the Clintons invented the Rove style of politics

Unsupportable. As always.

But they certainly had it used against them. With your obvious approval.

[BJR]

Unsupportable. As always.

But they certainly had it used against them. With your obvious approval.

The Rove style of politics was created by the Nazis.

Joseph Goebbeles I think. Or was it Goering? Himmler?

[BJR]

the Clintons invented the Rove style of politics

Vincent Foster, Vincent Foster, Vincent Foster.....

[Jack]

The Rove style of politics was created by the Nazis.

Joseph Goebbeles I think. Or was it Goering? Himmler?

once again the Bush-Nazi compasion is totally whack

getting people out to vote by emphasizing their religious beliefs in certain swing districts is nothing compared to what the Nazis did

I bet nazi survivors don't find these comparisons laughable

[Jack]

wasn't foster that dude who was seriously depressed because he couldn't handle the pressures of D.C. life so he killed himself?

depressed people kill themselves everyday ... sad problem

[BJR]

I bet nazi survivors don't find these comparisons laughable

I hope they find these comparisons very sobering.

[Jack]

I hope they find these comparisons very sobering.

I'm sure that if you went up to a holocaust survivor and told them that living in the United States equates to Nazi Germany you would likely get smacked in the face

[BJR]

Vincent Foster was the dude who was murdered when Clinton was president.

I need to get around reading that book Blood Sport that's been on my desk.

[BJR]

I'm sure that if you went up to a holocaust survivor and told them that living in the United States equates to Nazi Germany you would likely get smacked in the face

emotionalism. gotta love it.

[Jack]

Vincent Foster was the dude who was murdered when Clinton was president.

every investigation said it was suicide ... but I am sure that you, as a master detective, was able to crack the case

he was clinically depressed ... depressed people kill themselves every single day

just because he is a high ranking official in the White House doesn't mean that normal everyday things won't happen to him


and if all that you say is true ... what chance does Ron Paul have to survive one minute as president

[Jack]

emotionalism. gotta love it.

actually your complete stupidity in equating nazi germany to the United States shows just how ignorant you are of history and REAL human suffering and tyranny

the people lining up for the gas chambers would have exchanged anything for the liberty and rights you have here

ignorant ... ignorant

[BJR]

and if all that you say is true ... what chance does Ron Paul have to survive one minute as president

I am concerned about his safety.